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UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

2026-08-15 · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia

MASTER on this card
8–4
67% of scored fights

The Card

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garrytitlemain event
Welterweight · Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garry (UD 5:00)
BASELINE✓ Islam Makhachev · 70%BASELINE probability 0.696 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Islam Makhachev · 70%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Islam Makhachev · 95%ELO probability 0.974 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Islam Makhachev · 67%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 2215+/-102 vs 2075+/-126; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Islam Makhachev · 75%De-vigged consensus moneyline -360/282 -> 0.749 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Islam Makhachev · 95%Trust-weighted 9.00-0.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines for Islam Makhachev. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Islam Makhachev · 53%ML probability 0.533 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Islam Makhachev · 53%Recency-weighted form 1.317 vs 1.150 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Islam Makhachev · 61%Weighted differential +0.86 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Islam Makhachev · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Islam Makhachev · 63%TEST probability 0.629 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik
Middleweight · Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik (SUB, R2 4:25)
BASELINE✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 75%BASELINE probability 0.250 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 75%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 54%ELO probability 0.461 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 74%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1513+/-149 vs 1747+/-224; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 84%De-vigged consensus moneyline 500/-700 -> 0.160 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Mansur Abdul-Malik. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 63%ML probability 0.373 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 72%Recency-weighted form 0.165 vs 0.425 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Mansur Abdul-Malik · 57%Weighted differential -0.56 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Dustin Stoltzfus · 51%Striker vs Wrestler (n=412 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Dustin Stoltzfus · 78%TEST probability 0.781 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Welterweight · Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj (TKO, R2 3:20)
BASELINE✓ Neil Magny · 64%BASELINE probability 0.638 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Neil Magny · 64%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Neil Magny · 78%ELO probability 0.775 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Neil Magny · 84%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1918+/-76 vs 1600+/-140; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✗ Ramiz Brahimaj · 57%De-vigged consensus moneyline 124/-148 -> 0.428 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Neil Magny · 56%Trust-weighted 5.00-4.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Neil Magny. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Neil Magny · 56%ML probability 0.563 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Ramiz Brahimaj · 51%Recency-weighted form 0.535 vs 0.564 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Neil Magny · 60%Weighted differential +0.78 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Ramiz Brahimaj · 50%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Ramiz Brahimaj · 51%TEST probability 0.488 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes
Lightweight · Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes (KO, R1 0:39)
BASELINE✗ Kaue Fernandes · 79%BASELINE probability 0.210 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Kaue Fernandes · 79%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Jalin Turner · 95%ELO probability 0.953 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Jalin Turner · 65%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1714+/-115 vs 1586+/-200; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Jalin Turner · 52%De-vigged consensus moneyline -116/-102 -> 0.515 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Jalin Turner · 72%Trust-weighted 6.50-2.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 6/9 engines for Jalin Turner. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Jalin Turner · 59%ML probability 0.591 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Kaue Fernandes · 68%Recency-weighted form 0.587 vs 1.260 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Jalin Turner · 65%Weighted differential +1.20 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Jalin Turner · 53%Complete Fighter vs Wrestler (n=393 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Jalin Turner · 85%TEST probability 0.851 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson
Middleweight · Donte Johnson def. Eric McConico (KO, R1 1:38)
BASELINE✓ Donte Johnson · 75%BASELINE probability 0.252 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Donte Johnson · 75%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Donte Johnson · 84%ELO probability 0.162 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Donte Johnson · 65%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1514+/-209 vs 1676+/-261; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Donte Johnson · 72%De-vigged consensus moneyline 246/-302 -> 0.278 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Donte Johnson · 95%Trust-weighted 0.00-9.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines for Donte Johnson. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Donte Johnson · 72%ML probability 0.283 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Donte Johnson · 59%Recency-weighted form 0.911 vs 1.287 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Donte Johnson · 94%Weighted differential -5.66 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Donte Johnson · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=393 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Donte Johnson · 88%TEST probability 0.120 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez
Welterweight · Chidi Njokuani def. Joel Alvarez (UD 5:00)
BASELINE✓ Chidi Njokuani · 69%BASELINE probability 0.687 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Chidi Njokuani · 69%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Joel Alvarez · 95%ELO probability 0.005 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Joel Alvarez · 84%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1625+/-135 vs 1961+/-124; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✗ Joel Alvarez · 73%De-vigged consensus moneyline 250/-308 -> 0.275 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Chidi Njokuani · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Chidi Njokuani. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Joel Alvarez · 66%ML probability 0.345 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Joel Alvarez · 76%Recency-weighted form 0.192 vs 0.603 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Chidi Njokuani · 59%Weighted differential +0.69 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Chidi Njokuani · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=665 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Chidi Njokuani · 52%TEST probability 0.522 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Light Heavyweight · Lucas Fernando def. Rafael Tobias (TKO, R3 1:10)
BASELINE✗ Rafael Tobias · 79%BASELINE probability 0.213 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Rafael Tobias · 79%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Lucas Fernando · 95%ELO probability 0.968 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Lucas Fernando · 50%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500+/-350 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Lucas Fernando · 71%De-vigged consensus moneyline -288/235 -> 0.713 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Lucas Fernando · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Lucas Fernando. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Lucas Fernando · 53%ML probability 0.525 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Lucas Fernando · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.300 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Rafael Tobias · 66%Weighted differential -1.36 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Rafael Tobias · 52%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Rafael Tobias · 65%TEST probability 0.354 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin
Catch Weight · Charles Johnson def. Eduardo Chapolin (SUB, R3 1:36)
BASELINE✗ Eduardo Chapolin · 74%BASELINE probability 0.256 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Charles Johnson · 55%BASELINE pick with 2/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Charles Johnson · 88%ELO probability 0.876 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Charles Johnson · 63%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1640+/-114 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Charles Johnson · 52%De-vigged consensus moneyline -120/102 -> 0.524 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Charles Johnson · 53%Trust-weighted 4.75-4.25 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Charles Johnson. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Eduardo Chapolin · 59%ML probability 0.414 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Charles Johnson · 53%Recency-weighted form 0.340 vs 0.300 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Eduardo Chapolin · 95%Weighted differential -6.79 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Eduardo Chapolin · 56%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Eduardo Chapolin · 90%TEST probability 0.102 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
Middleweight · Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque (UD 5:00)
BASELINE✓ Tresean Gore · 53%BASELINE probability 0.475 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Tresean Gore · 53%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Vicente Luque · 95%ELO probability 0.991 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Vicente Luque · 91%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1878+/-86 vs 1405+/-170; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Tresean Gore · 51%De-vigged consensus moneyline -106/-114 -> 0.491 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✗ Vicente Luque · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Vicente Luque. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Vicente Luque · 63%ML probability 0.628 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Tresean Gore · 51%Recency-weighted form 0.667 vs 0.699 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Tresean Gore · 57%Weighted differential -0.57 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Vicente Luque · 51%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Vicente Luque · 52%TEST probability 0.522 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertsontitle
W Strawweight · Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian Robertson (UD 5:00)
BASELINE✗ Gillian Robertson · 57%BASELINE probability 0.434 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Gillian Robertson · 57%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Mackenzie Dern · 76%ELO probability 0.756 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Mackenzie Dern · 55%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1776+/-103 vs 1736+/-100; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Mackenzie Dern · 64%De-vigged consensus moneyline -202/169 -> 0.643 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✗ Gillian Robertson · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Gillian Robertson. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Gillian Robertson · 52%ML probability 0.476 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Gillian Robertson · 52%Recency-weighted form 1.275 vs 1.383 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Gillian Robertson · 81%Weighted differential -2.92 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Gillian Robertson · 52%Grappler vs Complete Fighter (n=229 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Gillian Robertson · 73%TEST probability 0.267 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics
Lightweight · Esteban Ribovics def. Edson Barboza (TKO, R2 1:32)
BASELINE✗ Edson Barboza · 56%BASELINE probability 0.557 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Edson Barboza · 56%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Esteban Ribovics · 84%ELO probability 0.158 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Edson Barboza · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1847+/-80 vs 1789+/-156; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Esteban Ribovics · 84%De-vigged consensus moneyline 490/-700 -> 0.162 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Esteban Ribovics · 83%Trust-weighted 1.50-7.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Esteban Ribovics. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Esteban Ribovics · 64%ML probability 0.363 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Esteban Ribovics · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.000 vs 0.347 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Esteban Ribovics · 95%Weighted differential -5.90 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Esteban Ribovics · 56%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Esteban Ribovics · 95%TEST probability 0.042 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai
Welterweight · Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai (SUB, R3 1:24)
BASELINE✓ Jeremiah Wells · 58%BASELINE probability 0.577 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Jeremiah Wells · 58%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 95%ELO probability 0.031 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1758+/-178 vs 1930+/-177; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 88%De-vigged consensus moneyline 704/-1108 -> 0.119 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 83%Trust-weighted 1.50-7.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Myktybek Orolbai. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 83%ML probability 0.174 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 72%Recency-weighted form 0.569 vs 1.431 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 95%Weighted differential -13.31 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=665 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Myktybek Orolbai · 95%TEST probability 0.004 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.