UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15 · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia
The Card
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garrytitlemain event
BASELINEIslam Makhachev · 70%BASELINE probability 0.696 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAIslam Makhachev · 70%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOIslam Makhachev · 95%ELO probability 0.974 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWIslam Makhachev · 67%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 2215+/-102 vs 2075+/-126; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETIslam Makhachev · 75%De-vigged consensus moneyline -360/282 -> 0.749 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERIslam Makhachev · 95%Trust-weighted 9.00-0.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines for Islam Makhachev. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLIslam Makhachev · 53%ML probability 0.533 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMIslam Makhachev · 53%Recency-weighted form 1.317 vs 1.150 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEIslam Makhachev · 61%Weighted differential +0.86 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEIslam Makhachev · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTIslam Makhachev · 63%TEST probability 0.629 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
BASELINETresean Gore · 53%BASELINE probability 0.475 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATATresean Gore · 53%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOVicente Luque · 95%ELO probability 0.991 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWVicente Luque · 91%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1878+/-86 vs 1405+/-170; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETTresean Gore · 51%De-vigged consensus moneyline -106/-114 -> 0.491 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERVicente Luque · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Vicente Luque. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLVicente Luque · 63%ML probability 0.628 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMTresean Gore · 51%Recency-weighted form 0.667 vs 0.699 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLETresean Gore · 57%Weighted differential -0.57 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEVicente Luque · 51%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTVicente Luque · 52%TEST probability 0.522 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertsontitle
BASELINEGillian Robertson · 57%BASELINE probability 0.434 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAGillian Robertson · 57%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOMackenzie Dern · 76%ELO probability 0.756 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWMackenzie Dern · 55%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1776+/-103 vs 1736+/-100; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETMackenzie Dern · 64%De-vigged consensus moneyline -202/169 -> 0.643 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERGillian Robertson · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Gillian Robertson. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLGillian Robertson · 52%ML probability 0.476 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMGillian Robertson · 52%Recency-weighted form 1.275 vs 1.383 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEGillian Robertson · 81%Weighted differential -2.92 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEGillian Robertson · 52%Grappler vs Complete Fighter (n=229 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTGillian Robertson · 73%TEST probability 0.267 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics
BASELINEEdson Barboza · 56%BASELINE probability 0.557 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAEdson Barboza · 56%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOEsteban Ribovics · 84%ELO probability 0.158 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWEdson Barboza · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1847+/-80 vs 1789+/-156; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETEsteban Ribovics · 84%De-vigged consensus moneyline 490/-700 -> 0.162 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTEREsteban Ribovics · 83%Trust-weighted 1.50-7.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Esteban Ribovics. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLEsteban Ribovics · 64%ML probability 0.363 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMEsteban Ribovics · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.000 vs 0.347 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEEsteban Ribovics · 95%Weighted differential -5.90 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEEsteban Ribovics · 56%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTEsteban Ribovics · 95%TEST probability 0.042 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai
BASELINEJeremiah Wells · 58%BASELINE probability 0.577 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAJeremiah Wells · 58%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOMyktybek Orolbai · 95%ELO probability 0.031 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWMyktybek Orolbai · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1758+/-178 vs 1930+/-177; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETMyktybek Orolbai · 88%De-vigged consensus moneyline 704/-1108 -> 0.119 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERMyktybek Orolbai · 83%Trust-weighted 1.50-7.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Myktybek Orolbai. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLMyktybek Orolbai · 83%ML probability 0.174 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMMyktybek Orolbai · 72%Recency-weighted form 0.569 vs 1.431 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEMyktybek Orolbai · 95%Weighted differential -13.31 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEMyktybek Orolbai · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=665 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTMyktybek Orolbai · 95%TEST probability 0.004 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik
BASELINEMansur Abdul-Malik · 75%BASELINE probability 0.250 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAMansur Abdul-Malik · 75%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOMansur Abdul-Malik · 54%ELO probability 0.461 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWMansur Abdul-Malik · 74%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1513+/-149 vs 1747+/-224; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETMansur Abdul-Malik · 84%De-vigged consensus moneyline 500/-700 -> 0.160 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERMansur Abdul-Malik · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Mansur Abdul-Malik. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLMansur Abdul-Malik · 63%ML probability 0.373 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMMansur Abdul-Malik · 72%Recency-weighted form 0.165 vs 0.425 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEMansur Abdul-Malik · 57%Weighted differential -0.56 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEDustin Stoltzfus · 51%Striker vs Wrestler (n=412 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTDustin Stoltzfus · 78%TEST probability 0.781 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj
BASELINENeil Magny · 64%BASELINE probability 0.638 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATANeil Magny · 64%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELONeil Magny · 78%ELO probability 0.775 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWNeil Magny · 84%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1918+/-76 vs 1600+/-140; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETRamiz Brahimaj · 57%De-vigged consensus moneyline 124/-148 -> 0.428 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERNeil Magny · 56%Trust-weighted 5.00-4.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Neil Magny. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLNeil Magny · 56%ML probability 0.563 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMRamiz Brahimaj · 51%Recency-weighted form 0.535 vs 0.564 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLENeil Magny · 60%Weighted differential +0.78 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLERamiz Brahimaj · 50%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTRamiz Brahimaj · 51%TEST probability 0.488 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes
BASELINEKaue Fernandes · 79%BASELINE probability 0.210 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAKaue Fernandes · 79%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOJalin Turner · 95%ELO probability 0.953 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWJalin Turner · 65%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1714+/-115 vs 1586+/-200; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETJalin Turner · 52%De-vigged consensus moneyline -116/-102 -> 0.515 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERJalin Turner · 72%Trust-weighted 6.50-2.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 6/9 engines for Jalin Turner. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLJalin Turner · 59%ML probability 0.591 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMKaue Fernandes · 68%Recency-weighted form 0.587 vs 1.260 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEJalin Turner · 65%Weighted differential +1.20 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEJalin Turner · 53%Complete Fighter vs Wrestler (n=393 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTJalin Turner · 85%TEST probability 0.851 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson
BASELINEDonte Johnson · 75%BASELINE probability 0.252 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATADonte Johnson · 75%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELODonte Johnson · 84%ELO probability 0.162 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWDonte Johnson · 65%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1514+/-209 vs 1676+/-261; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETDonte Johnson · 72%De-vigged consensus moneyline 246/-302 -> 0.278 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERDonte Johnson · 95%Trust-weighted 0.00-9.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines for Donte Johnson. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLDonte Johnson · 72%ML probability 0.283 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMDonte Johnson · 59%Recency-weighted form 0.911 vs 1.287 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEDonte Johnson · 94%Weighted differential -5.66 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEDonte Johnson · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=393 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTDonte Johnson · 88%TEST probability 0.120 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Donte Johnson has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez
BASELINEChidi Njokuani · 69%BASELINE probability 0.687 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATAChidi Njokuani · 69%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOJoel Alvarez · 95%ELO probability 0.005 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWJoel Alvarez · 84%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1625+/-135 vs 1961+/-124; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETJoel Alvarez · 73%De-vigged consensus moneyline 250/-308 -> 0.275 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERChidi Njokuani · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Chidi Njokuani. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLJoel Alvarez · 66%ML probability 0.345 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMJoel Alvarez · 76%Recency-weighted form 0.192 vs 0.603 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEChidi Njokuani · 59%Weighted differential +0.69 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEChidi Njokuani · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=665 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTChidi Njokuani · 52%TEST probability 0.522 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
BASELINERafael Tobias · 79%BASELINE probability 0.213 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATARafael Tobias · 79%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOLucas Fernando · 95%ELO probability 0.968 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWLucas Fernando · 50%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500+/-350 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETLucas Fernando · 71%De-vigged consensus moneyline -288/235 -> 0.713 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERLucas Fernando · 50%Trust-weighted 4.50-4.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Lucas Fernando. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLLucas Fernando · 53%ML probability 0.525 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMLucas Fernando · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.300 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLERafael Tobias · 66%Weighted differential -1.36 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLERafael Tobias · 52%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTRafael Tobias · 65%TEST probability 0.354 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin
BASELINEEduardo Chapolin · 74%BASELINE probability 0.256 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATACharles Johnson · 55%BASELINE pick with 2/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELOCharles Johnson · 88%ELO probability 0.876 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOWCharles Johnson · 63%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1640+/-114 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKETCharles Johnson · 52%De-vigged consensus moneyline -120/102 -> 0.524 (TODO - one fresh single-vintage snapshot captured on lock day). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTERCharles Johnson · 53%Trust-weighted 4.75-4.25 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines for Charles Johnson. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MLEduardo Chapolin · 59%ML probability 0.414 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUMCharles Johnson · 53%Recency-weighted form 0.340 vs 0.300 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLEEduardo Chapolin · 95%Weighted differential -6.79 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLEEduardo Chapolin · 56%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TESTEduardo Chapolin · 90%TEST probability 0.102 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-15 stats. CAVEAT: Eduardo Chapolin has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.