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UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

2026-08-01 · Belgrade Arena · Belgrade

MASTER on this card
7–2
78% of scored fights

The Card

Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medicmain event
Welterweight · Uros Medic def. Daniel Rodriguez (TKO, R1 0:30)
BASELINE✓ Uros Medic · 50%BASELINE probability 0.498 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Uros Medic · 50%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✓ Uros Medic · 57%ELO probability 0.427 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Daniel Rodriguez · 67%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1881+/-109 vs 1744+/-135; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Uros Medic · 75%De-vigged consensus moneyline 280/-360 -> 0.252 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Uros Medic · 83%Trust-weighted 1.50-7.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 2/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✓ Uros Medic · 56%ML probability 0.438 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Uros Medic · 57%Recency-weighted form 1.028 vs 1.355 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✗ Daniel Rodriguez · 69%Weighted differential +1.56 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✓ Uros Medic · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=387 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✗ Daniel Rodriguez · 80%TEST probability 0.796 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck
Heavyweight · Jovan Leka def. Alexander Poppeck (TKO, R1 2:22)
BASELINE✓ Jovan Leka · 87%BASELINE probability 0.872 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Jovan Leka · 87%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✓ Jovan Leka · 50%ELO probability 0.500 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Jovan Leka · 50%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500+/-350 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Jovan Leka · 67%De-vigged consensus moneyline -230/190 -> 0.669 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Jovan Leka · 94%Trust-weighted 8.50-0.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✓ Jovan Leka · 78%ML probability 0.784 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Jovan Leka · 50%Recency-weighted form 0.300 vs 0.300 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Jovan Leka · 65%Weighted differential +1.20 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✓ Jovan Leka · 53%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✗ Alexander Poppeck · 70%TEST probability 0.299 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Jovan Leka, Alexander Poppeck has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Hailey Cowan vs Nina Milošević
W Bantamweight · Nina Milošević def. Hailey Cowan (TKO, R1 3:41)
Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki
Lightweight · Mateusz Rebecki def. Kyle Prepolec (TKO, R1 4:41)
BASELINE✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 65%BASELINE probability 0.349 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 65%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 95%ELO probability 0.006 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 88%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1276+/-229 vs 1729+/-148; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 78%De-vigged consensus moneyline 340/-440 -> 0.218 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 89%Trust-weighted 1.00-8.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 1/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 93%ML probability 0.075 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✗ Kyle Prepolec · 50%Recency-weighted form 0.000 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 95%Weighted differential -10.12 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 56%mirror Grappler (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✓ Mateusz Rebecki · 95%TEST probability 0.005 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad
Featherweight · Bogdan Grad def. Dennis Buzukja (SUB, R2 4:33)
BASELINE✓ Bogdan Grad · 52%BASELINE probability 0.483 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Bogdan Grad · 52%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✗ Dennis Buzukja · 95%ELO probability 0.955 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Bogdan Grad · 74%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1313+/-190 vs 1560+/-234; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Bogdan Grad · 62%De-vigged consensus moneyline 155/-185 -> 0.377 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Bogdan Grad · 61%Trust-weighted 3.50-5.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✗ Dennis Buzukja · 57%ML probability 0.566 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✗ Dennis Buzukja · 52%Recency-weighted form 0.195 vs 0.180 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Bogdan Grad · 95%Weighted differential -7.27 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✓ Bogdan Grad · 53%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✓ Bogdan Grad · 95%TEST probability 0.024 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin
Bantamweight · Borislav Nikolic def. Mark Vologdin (UD 5:00)
Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira
Welterweight · Michael Oliveira def. Oban Elliott (TKO, R1 1:49)
BASELINE✓ Michael Oliveira · 84%BASELINE probability 0.162 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Michael Oliveira · 84%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✓ Michael Oliveira · 60%ELO probability 0.403 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Oban Elliott · 69%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1719+/-197 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Michael Oliveira · 74%De-vigged consensus moneyline 265/-340 -> 0.262 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Michael Oliveira · 95%Trust-weighted 0.00-9.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 0/9 engines. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✓ Michael Oliveira · 83%ML probability 0.172 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Michael Oliveira · 60%Recency-weighted form 0.204 vs 0.300 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Michael Oliveira · 95%Weighted differential -7.13 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✓ Michael Oliveira · 57%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✓ Michael Oliveira · 95%TEST probability 0.021 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Michael Oliveira has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev
Lightweight · Tofiq Musayev def. Ludovit Klein (TKO, R2 4:07)
BASELINE✗ Ludovit Klein · 53%BASELINE probability 0.530 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✗ Ludovit Klein · 53%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✗ Ludovit Klein · 92%ELO probability 0.919 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Ludovit Klein · 81%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1787+/-129 vs 1424+/-294; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✗ Ludovit Klein · 67%De-vigged consensus moneyline -230/190 -> 0.669 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✗ Ludovit Klein · 89%Trust-weighted 8.00-1.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✗ Ludovit Klein · 79%ML probability 0.788 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Tofiq Musayev · 51%Recency-weighted form 0.843 vs 0.874 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✗ Ludovit Klein · 95%Weighted differential +8.63 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✗ Ludovit Klein · 51%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✗ Ludovit Klein · 95%TEST probability 0.990 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. CAVEAT: Tofiq Musayev has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Gilbert Urbina vs Vlasto Čepo
Middleweight · Gilbert Urbina def. Vlasto Čepo (TKO, R1 1:01)
Dusko Todorovic vs Robert Valentin
Middleweight · Robert Valentin def. Dusko Todorovic (SUB, R1 4:14)
BASELINE✓ Robert Valentin · 53%BASELINE probability 0.472 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Robert Valentin · 53%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✗ Dusko Todorovic · 83%ELO probability 0.832 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Dusko Todorovic · 64%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1344+/-145 vs 1208+/-237; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Robert Valentin · 58%De-vigged consensus moneyline 130/-155 -> 0.417 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✗ Dusko Todorovic · 61%Trust-weighted 5.50-3.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✗ Dusko Todorovic · 81%ML probability 0.805 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Robert Valentin · 54%Recency-weighted form 0.635 vs 0.756 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✗ Dusko Todorovic · 95%Weighted differential +6.96 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✗ Dusko Todorovic · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✗ Dusko Todorovic · 95%TEST probability 0.980 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakic
Heavyweight · Aleksandar Rakic def. Marcin Tybura (UD 5:00)
BASELINE✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 56%BASELINE probability 0.440 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 56%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 95%ELO probability 0.016 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 58%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1806+/-89 vs 1865+/-122; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 73%De-vigged consensus moneyline 260/-330 -> 0.266 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 70%ML probability 0.300 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✗ Marcin Tybura · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.208 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Aleksandar Rakic · 54%Weighted differential -0.36 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✗ Marcin Tybura · 53%Complete Fighter vs Wrestler (n=387 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✗ Marcin Tybura · 54%TEST probability 0.540 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling
Light Heavyweight · Navajo Stirling def. Jan Blachowicz (TKO, R1 2:56)
BASELINE✓ Navajo Stirling · 67%BASELINE probability 0.334 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
DATA✓ Navajo Stirling · 67%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ELO✗ Jan Blachowicz · 95%ELO probability 0.953 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Jan Blachowicz · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1902+/-93 vs 1843+/-201; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MARKET✓ Navajo Stirling · 73%De-vigged consensus moneyline 260/-330 -> 0.266 (consensus moneyline snapshot 2026-07-29). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MASTER✓ Navajo Stirling · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ML✗ Jan Blachowicz · 64%ML probability 0.642 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
MOMENTUM✓ Navajo Stirling · 81%Recency-weighted form 0.336 vs 1.465 incl. layoff penalty. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
ORACLE✓ Navajo Stirling · 95%Weighted differential -7.30 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
STYLE✗ Jan Blachowicz · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=652 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
TEST✓ Navajo Stirling · 94%TEST probability 0.064 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-01 stats. Stat vintage 2026-04-02 (118d) — no refresh available this cycle.
Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon
Lightweight · Noah Gugnon def. Milos Janicic (SUB, R1 1:21)
Marina Spasic vs Stephanie Luciano
W Strawweight · Stephanie Luciano def. Marina Spasic (SUB, R1)
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.