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UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

2026-08-08 · Meta APEX · Las Vegas

MASTER on this card
7–1
88% of scored fights

The Card

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilldmain event
Lightweight · Quillan Salkilld def. Mateusz Gamrot (SUB, R1)
BASELINE✗ Mateusz Gamrot · 63%BASELINE probability 0.628 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Mateusz Gamrot · 63%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Mateusz Gamrot · 68%ELO probability 0.682 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Mateusz Gamrot · 56%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1968+/-112 vs 1915+/-183; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Quillan Salkilld · 57%De-vigged consensus moneyline 123/-148 -> 0.429 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Quillan Salkilld · 61%Trust-weighted 3.50-5.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 6/9 engines for Quillan Salkilld. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Quillan Salkilld · 68%ML probability 0.324 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Quillan Salkilld · 60%Recency-weighted form 0.946 vs 1.402 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Quillan Salkilld · 95%Weighted differential -8.99 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Quillan Salkilld · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=391 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Quillan Salkilld · 95%TEST probability 0.010 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
Heavyweight · Steven Asplund def. Guilherme Pat (UD)
BASELINE✗ Guilherme Pat · 69%BASELINE probability 0.312 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Guilherme Pat · 69%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Guilherme Pat · 87%ELO probability 0.133 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Guilherme Pat · 56%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1598+/-290 vs 1662+/-290; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Steven Asplund · 71%De-vigged consensus moneyline -290/235 -> 0.714 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✗ Guilherme Pat · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Guilherme Pat. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Steven Asplund · 50%ML probability 0.501 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✗ Guilherme Pat · 50%Recency-weighted form 0.424 vs 0.424 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Steven Asplund · 95%Weighted differential +10.82 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Guilherme Pat · 52%mirror Striker (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Steven Asplund · 95%TEST probability 0.999 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Steven Asplund, Guilherme Pat has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira
W Flyweight · Juliana Miller def. Ravena Oliveira (SUB, R2)
BASELINE✗ Ravena Oliveira · 67%BASELINE probability 0.334 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Ravena Oliveira · 67%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Juliana Miller · 95%ELO probability 0.988 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Juliana Miller · 62%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1399+/-203 vs 1281+/-240; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Juliana Miller · 72%De-vigged consensus moneyline -302/240 -> 0.719 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Juliana Miller · 83%Trust-weighted 7.50-1.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Juliana Miller. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Juliana Miller · 62%ML probability 0.621 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Juliana Miller · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.345 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Juliana Miller · 92%Weighted differential +4.74 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Juliana Miller · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=663 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Juliana Miller · 95%TEST probability 0.969 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller
Welterweight · Ty Miller def. Billy Ray Goff (TKO, R3)
BASELINE✓ Ty Miller · 68%BASELINE probability 0.320 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Ty Miller · 68%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Ty Miller · 89%ELO probability 0.111 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Billy Ray Goff · 51%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1513+/-249 vs 1500+/-350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Ty Miller · 76%De-vigged consensus moneyline 305/-394 -> 0.236 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Ty Miller · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 6/9 engines for Ty Miller. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Ty Miller · 60%ML probability 0.404 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Ty Miller · 88%Recency-weighted form 0.142 vs 1.012 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Billy Ray Goff · 70%Weighted differential +1.73 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✗ Billy Ray Goff · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=663 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Billy Ray Goff · 85%TEST probability 0.853 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. CAVEAT: Ty Miller has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle
Featherweight · Yadier del Valle def. Darren Elkins (TKO, R1)
BASELINE✓ Yadier del Valle · 63%BASELINE probability 0.369 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Yadier del Valle · 63%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Yadier del Valle · 61%ELO probability 0.389 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Darren Elkins · 56%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1791+/-86 vs 1735+/-245; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Yadier del Valle · 85%De-vigged consensus moneyline 550/-800 -> 0.148 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Yadier del Valle · 95%Trust-weighted 0.00-9.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines for Yadier del Valle. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Yadier del Valle · 62%ML probability 0.382 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Yadier del Valle · 59%Recency-weighted form 0.390 vs 0.557 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Yadier del Valle · 70%Weighted differential -1.69 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Yadier del Valle · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=391 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Yadier del Valle · 59%TEST probability 0.413 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas
Featherweight · no result recorded
Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Lightweight · Manoel Sousa def. Richie Miranda (UD)
Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro
W Strawweight · Carol Foro def. Gigi Canuto (UD)
Miles Johns vs Gianni Vazquez
Featherweight · Miles Johns def. Gianni Vazquez (TKO, R1)
Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay
Light Heavyweight · Diyar Nurgozhay def. Bruno Lopes (TKO, R1)
BASELINE✗ Bruno Lopes · 54%BASELINE probability 0.540 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✗ Bruno Lopes · 54%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Bruno Lopes · 77%ELO probability 0.766 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Bruno Lopes · 83%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1578+/-225 vs 1186+/-240; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 57%De-vigged consensus moneyline 122/-150 -> 0.429 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines for Diyar Nurgozhay. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✗ Bruno Lopes · 53%ML probability 0.527 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 77%Recency-weighted form 0.211 vs 0.706 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 78%Weighted differential -2.53 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Diyar Nurgozhay · 80%TEST probability 0.198 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
Lightweight · Diego Ferreira def. Billy Quarantillo (UD)
BASELINE✓ Diego Ferreira · 65%BASELINE probability 0.654 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Diego Ferreira · 65%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✓ Diego Ferreira · 95%ELO probability 0.972 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Diego Ferreira · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1866+/-102 vs 1715+/-128; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Diego Ferreira · 61%De-vigged consensus moneyline -175/145 -> 0.609 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Diego Ferreira · 83%Trust-weighted 7.50-1.50 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 7/9 engines for Diego Ferreira. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Diego Ferreira · 58%ML probability 0.579 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Diego Ferreira · 56%Recency-weighted form 0.179 vs 0.142 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✗ Billy Quarantillo · 95%Weighted differential -6.31 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Diego Ferreira · 50%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✗ Billy Quarantillo · 95%TEST probability 0.016 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland
Heavyweight · Henrique Da Silva Lopes def. Louie Sutherland (SUB, R1)
Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
W Strawweight · Alexia Thainara def. Amanda Lemos (UD)
BASELINE✓ Alexia Thainara · 86%BASELINE probability 0.141 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
DATA✓ Alexia Thainara · 86%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ELO✗ Amanda Lemos · 66%ELO probability 0.661 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Amanda Lemos · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1833+/-108 vs 1774+/-213; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MARKET✓ Alexia Thainara · 69%De-vigged consensus moneyline 212/-262 -> 0.307 (The Odds API US consensus (median of 4-6 books/bout), snapshot 2026-08-06 ~10:50 UTC). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MASTER✓ Alexia Thainara · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines for Alexia Thainara. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ML✓ Alexia Thainara · 76%ML probability 0.238 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
MOMENTUM✓ Alexia Thainara · 87%Recency-weighted form 0.199 vs 1.323 incl. layoff penalty. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
ORACLE✓ Alexia Thainara · 95%Weighted differential -13.32 across striking, grappling, reach and age. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
STYLE✓ Alexia Thainara · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=663 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
TEST✓ Alexia Thainara · 95%TEST probability 0.002 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-08-08 stats. Input vintages: career stats 2026-04-02/2026-08-05 cohorts; Elo 2026-05-02 (same basis as E12/E13; no refresh this cycle).
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.