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UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland

2026-05-09 · Prudential Center · Newark

MASTER on this card
9–4
69% of scored fights

The Card

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Stricklandtitlemain event
Middleweight · Sean Strickland def. Khamzat Chimaev (Decision, R5)
BASELINE✗ Khamzat ChimaevDefense-first: Khamzat Chimaev edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✗ Khamzat Chimaev · 95%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 8-0 unanimous + Vegas -575 alignment; no shared-data trap detected.
DATA✗ Khamzat ChimaevDB-confirmed: Khamzat Chimaev matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✗ Khamzat ChimaevRating: Khamzat Chimaev holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✗ Khamzat Chimaev · 95%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Khamzat Chimaev at 0.95 confidence (8-0, tier A).
ML✗ Khamzat Chimaevv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Khamzat Chimaev.
MOMENTUM✗ Khamzat ChimaevRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Khamzat Chimaev.
ORACLE✗ Khamzat ChimaevFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Khamzat Chimaev.
STYLE✗ Khamzat ChimaevArchetype matchup analysis favors Khamzat Chimaev.
TEST✗ Khamzat ChimaevAggression-first: Khamzat Chimaev stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Vantitle
Flyweight · Joshua Van def. Tatsuro Taira (TKO, R5)
BASELINE✗ Tatsuro TairaDefense-first: Tatsuro Taira edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✗ Tatsuro Taira · 88%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 7-1 + Vegas Taira -162 alignment; ORACLE dissents on slpm/sdef/tddef gaps.
DATA✗ Tatsuro TairaDB-confirmed: Tatsuro Taira matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✗ Tatsuro TairaRating: Tatsuro Taira holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✗ Tatsuro Taira · 88%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Tatsuro Taira at 0.88 confidence (7-1, tier A).
ML✗ Tatsuro Tairav2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Tatsuro Taira.
MOMENTUM✗ Tatsuro TairaRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Tatsuro Taira.
ORACLE✓ Joshua VanFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Joshua Van.
STYLE✗ Tatsuro TairaArchetype matchup analysis favors Tatsuro Taira.
TEST✗ Tatsuro TairaAggression-first: Tatsuro Taira stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
Heavyweight · Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Decision, R3)
BASELINE✗ Waldo Cortes AcostaDefense-first: Waldo Cortes Acosta edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Alexander Volkov · 69%Consensus check: N/A. Below 6-engine consensus threshold; coin-flip-leaning fight.
DATA✗ Waldo Cortes AcostaDB-confirmed: Waldo Cortes Acosta matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Alexander VolkovRating: Alexander Volkov holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Alexander Volkov · 69%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Alexander Volkov at 0.69 confidence (5-3, tier C).
ML✓ Alexander Volkovv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Alexander Volkov.
MOMENTUM✗ Waldo Cortes AcostaRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Waldo Cortes Acosta.
ORACLE✓ Alexander VolkovFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Alexander Volkov.
STYLE✓ Alexander VolkovArchetype matchup analysis favors Alexander Volkov.
TEST✓ Alexander VolkovAggression-first: Alexander Volkov stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley
Welterweight · Sean Brady def. Joaquin Buckley (Decision, R3)
BASELINE✓ Sean BradyDefense-first: Sean Brady edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Sean Brady · 75%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 7-1 + Vegas Brady -170 align; ELO dissent reflects Buckley's career-rated wins.
DATA✓ Sean BradyDB-confirmed: Sean Brady matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✗ Joaquin BuckleyRating: Joaquin Buckley holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Sean Brady · 75%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Sean Brady at 0.75 confidence (7-1, tier B).
ML✓ Sean Bradyv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Sean Brady.
MOMENTUM✓ Sean BradyRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Sean Brady.
ORACLE✓ Sean BradyFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Sean Brady.
STYLE✓ Sean BradyArchetype matchup analysis favors Sean Brady.
TEST✓ Sean BradyAggression-first: Sean Brady stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens
Lightweight · King Green def. Jeremy Stephens (Submission, R1)
BASELINE✓ King GreenDefense-first: King Green edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ King Green · 95%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 8-0 unanimous + Vegas -425; Stephens age + losses make this a clean fav.
DATA✓ King GreenDB-confirmed: King Green matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ King GreenRating: King Green holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ King Green · 95%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: King Green at 0.95 confidence (8-0, tier A).
ML✓ King Greenv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks King Green.
MOMENTUM✓ King GreenRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors King Green.
ORACLE✓ King GreenFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors King Green.
STYLE✓ King GreenArchetype matchup analysis favors King Green.
TEST✓ King GreenAggression-first: King Green stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
Middleweight · Ateba Gautier def. Ozzy Diaz (KO, R2)
BASELINE✓ Ateba GautierDefense-first: Ateba Gautier edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Ateba Gautier · 94%Consensus check: CONFIRM. Note: Gautier dropping HW->MW. 7-1 + Vegas -1100 align; TEST dissent on slpm/sacc.
DATA✓ Ateba GautierDB-confirmed: Ateba Gautier matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Ateba GautierRating: Ateba Gautier holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Ateba Gautier · 94%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Ateba Gautier at 0.94 confidence (7-1, tier A).
ML✓ Ateba Gautierv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Ateba Gautier.
MOMENTUM✓ Ateba GautierRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Ateba Gautier.
ORACLE✓ Ateba GautierFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Ateba Gautier.
STYLE✓ Ateba GautierArchetype matchup analysis favors Ateba Gautier.
TEST✗ Ozzy DiazAggression-first: Ozzy Diaz stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez
Welterweight · Yaroslav Amosov def. Joel Alvarez (Submission, R2)
BASELINE✓ Yaroslav AmosovDefense-first: Yaroslav Amosov edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Yaroslav Amosov · 56%Consensus check: N/A. Data gap flag: Amosov tddef=0% in DB (Bellator import) distorts ORACLE/ELO/ML; predictions may underweight his wrestling.
DATA✓ Yaroslav AmosovDB-confirmed: Yaroslav Amosov matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✗ Joel AlvarezRating: Joel Alvarez holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Yaroslav Amosov · 56%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Yaroslav Amosov at 0.56 confidence (5-3, tier C).
ML✗ Joel Alvarezv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Joel Alvarez.
MOMENTUM✓ Yaroslav AmosovRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Yaroslav Amosov.
ORACLE✗ Joel AlvarezFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Joel Alvarez.
STYLE✓ Yaroslav AmosovArchetype matchup analysis favors Yaroslav Amosov.
TEST✓ Yaroslav AmosovAggression-first: Yaroslav Amosov stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
Lightweight · Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki (Submission, R3)
BASELINE✓ Grant DawsonDefense-first: Grant Dawson edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Grant Dawson · 95%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 8-0 unanimous + Vegas Dawson -166 align; clean wrestler vs grappler edge.
DATA✓ Grant DawsonDB-confirmed: Grant Dawson matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Grant DawsonRating: Grant Dawson holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Grant Dawson · 95%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Grant Dawson at 0.95 confidence (8-0, tier A).
ML✓ Grant Dawsonv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Grant Dawson.
MOMENTUM✓ Grant DawsonRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Grant Dawson.
ORACLE✓ Grant DawsonFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Grant Dawson.
STYLE✓ Grant DawsonArchetype matchup analysis favors Grant Dawson.
TEST✓ Grant DawsonAggression-first: Grant Dawson stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller
Lightweight · Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon (Submission, R1)
BASELINE✗ Jared GordonDefense-first: Jared Gordon edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✗ Jared Gordon · 75%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 7-1 + Vegas Gordon -310 align; ELO dissent reflects Miller's career accumulator.
DATA✗ Jared GordonDB-confirmed: Jared Gordon matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Jim MillerRating: Jim Miller holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✗ Jared Gordon · 75%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Jared Gordon at 0.75 confidence (7-1, tier B).
ML✗ Jared Gordonv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Jared Gordon.
MOMENTUM✗ Jared GordonRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Jared Gordon.
ORACLE✗ Jared GordonFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Jared Gordon.
STYLE✗ Jared GordonArchetype matchup analysis favors Jared Gordon.
TEST✗ Jared GordonAggression-first: Jared Gordon stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Marco Tulio vs Roman Kopylov
Middleweight · Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio (Decision, R3)
BASELINE✗ Marco TulioDefense-first: Marco Tulio edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✗ Marco Tulio · 56%Consensus check: N/A. Data gap flag: Tulio tddef=0% in DB (small sample) inflates Kopylov in formula engines.
DATA✗ Marco TulioDB-confirmed: Marco Tulio matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Roman KopylovRating: Roman Kopylov holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✗ Marco Tulio · 56%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Marco Tulio at 0.56 confidence (5-3, tier C).
ML✓ Roman Kopylovv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Roman Kopylov.
MOMENTUM✗ Marco TulioRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Marco Tulio.
ORACLE✓ Roman KopylovFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Roman Kopylov.
STYLE✗ Marco TulioArchetype matchup analysis favors Marco Tulio.
TEST✗ Marco TulioAggression-first: Marco Tulio stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis
Featherweight · Pat Sabatini def. William Gomis (Decision, R3)
BASELINE✗ William GomisDefense-first: William Gomis edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Pat Sabatini · 56%Consensus check: N/A. True 4-4 split; trust-weighted MASTER lands Sabatini via ELO+STYLE anchors. Coin flip.
DATA✗ William GomisDB-confirmed: William Gomis matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Pat SabatiniRating: Pat Sabatini holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Pat Sabatini · 56%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Pat Sabatini at 0.56 confidence (4-4, tier C).
ML✓ Pat Sabatiniv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Pat Sabatini.
MOMENTUM✗ William GomisRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors William Gomis.
ORACLE✗ William GomisFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors William Gomis.
STYLE✓ Pat SabatiniArchetype matchup analysis favors Pat Sabatini.
TEST✓ Pat SabatiniAggression-first: Pat Sabatini stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos
Middleweight · Baisangur Susurkaev def. Djorden Santos (Submission, R3)
BASELINE✓ Baisangur SusurkaevDefense-first: Baisangur Susurkaev edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Baisangur Susurkaev · 95%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 8-0 unanimous + Vegas Sus -700; undefeated young prospect vs mid-tier opponent.
DATA✓ Baisangur SusurkaevDB-confirmed: Baisangur Susurkaev matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Baisangur SusurkaevRating: Baisangur Susurkaev holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Baisangur Susurkaev · 95%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Baisangur Susurkaev at 0.95 confidence (8-0, tier A).
ML✓ Baisangur Susurkaevv2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Baisangur Susurkaev.
MOMENTUM✓ Baisangur SusurkaevRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Baisangur Susurkaev.
ORACLE✓ Baisangur SusurkaevFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Baisangur Susurkaev.
STYLE✓ Baisangur SusurkaevArchetype matchup analysis favors Baisangur Susurkaev.
TEST✓ Baisangur SusurkaevAggression-first: Baisangur Susurkaev stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Jose Ochoa vs Clayton Carpenter
Featherweight · Jose Ochoa def. Clayton Carpenter (Decision, R3)
BASELINE✓ Jose OchoaDefense-first: Jose Ochoa edges on str_def + td_def + sapm + win_rate balance.
BOOKWORM✓ Jose Ochoa · 81%Consensus check: CONFIRM. 6-2 + Vegas Ochoa -170 align; ORACLE/TEST dissent on Carpenter's volume.
DATA✓ Jose OchoaDB-confirmed: Jose Ochoa matches BASELINE; record + quality of opposition support.
ELO✓ Jose OchoaRating: Jose Ochoa holds higher Elo at lock time.
MASTER✓ Jose Ochoa · 81%v7.2 trust-weighted vote: Jose Ochoa at 0.81 confidence (6-2, tier B).
ML✓ Jose Ochoav2.3 logistic regression on 16 differential features picks Jose Ochoa.
MOMENTUM✓ Jose OchoaRecent form weighted (3x/1.5x/1x) favors Jose Ochoa.
ORACLE✗ Clayton CarpenterFormula computation: signed weighted differential favors Clayton Carpenter.
STYLE✓ Jose OchoaArchetype matchup analysis favors Jose Ochoa.
TEST✗ Clayton CarpenterAggression-first: Clayton Carpenter stronger on slpm/sacc/sub_avg/td_avg comparison.
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.