UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · Etihad Arena · Abu Dhabi
MASTER on this card
5–2
71% of scored fights
The Card
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskovmain event
BASELINE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 82%BASELINE probability 0.816 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 82%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 94%ELO probability 0.942 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 73%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 2069±110 vs 1868±174; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 81%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -555/393 -> 0.807 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 89%Trust-weighted 8.00-1.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines.
ML✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 64%ML probability 0.643 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✗ Bogdan Guskov · 61%Recency-weighted form 0.522 vs 0.828 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 63%Weighted differential +1.07 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 52%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 53%TEST probability 0.527 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman
BASELINEIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE probability 0.887 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATAIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELOIslam Dulatov · 95%ELO probability 0.992 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWWellington Turman · 54%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500±350 vs 1548±143; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKETIslam Dulatov · 87%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -910/623 -> 0.867 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTERIslam Dulatov · 95%Trust-weighted 9.00-0.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLIslam Dulatov · 95%ML probability 0.949 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUMIslam Dulatov · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.844 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLEIslam Dulatov · 95%Weighted differential +11.33 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLEIslam Dulatov · 52%Complete Fighter vs Grappler (n=224 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTIslam Dulatov · 95%TEST probability 0.997 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
BASELINE✓ Ramazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE probability 0.235 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✓ Ramazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Ramazan Temirov · 90%ELO probability 0.102 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Steve Erceg · 58%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1728±143 vs 1650±264; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Ramazan Temirov · 51%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -108/-113 -> 0.495 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Ramazan Temirov · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Ramazan Temirov · 53%ML probability 0.466 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✗ Steve Erceg · 51%Recency-weighted form 1.058 vs 1.007 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✗ Steve Erceg · 60%Weighted differential +0.82 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✗ Steve Erceg · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✗ Steve Erceg · 69%TEST probability 0.690 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
BASELINE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE probability 0.401 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✗ Tyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 79%ELO probability 0.785 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Tyrell Fortune · 53%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1467±318 vs 1500±350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 73%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -333/252 -> 0.730 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✗ Tyrell Fortune · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 74%ML probability 0.742 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✗ Tyrell Fortune · 58%Recency-weighted form 0.869 vs 1.211 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 63%Weighted differential -1.10 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 50%TEST probability 0.500 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen
BASELINE✗ Thomas Petersen · 79%BASELINE probability 0.206 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Valter Walker · 55%BASELINE pick with 2/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Valter Walker · 95%ELO probability 1.000 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Valter Walker · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1706±185 vs 1544±171; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Valter Walker · 61%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -182/145 -> 0.613 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Valter Walker · 92%Trust-weighted 8.25-0.75 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines.
ML✓ Valter Walker · 95%ML probability 0.977 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Valter Walker · 60%Recency-weighted form 1.202 vs 0.795 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✓ Valter Walker · 95%Weighted differential +5.88 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Valter Walker · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✓ Valter Walker · 95%TEST probability 0.974 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
BASELINE✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 77%BASELINE probability 0.771 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 77%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Sam Patterson · 95%ELO probability 0.025 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1848±95 vs 1793±182; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Sam Patterson · 77%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus 320/-420 -> 0.228 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Sam Patterson · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines.
ML✓ Sam Patterson · 59%ML probability 0.410 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Sam Patterson · 70%Recency-weighted form 0.260 vs 0.610 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 57%Weighted differential +0.60 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Sam Patterson · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 66%TEST probability 0.664 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
BASELINE✗ Ismael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE probability 0.738 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✗ Ismael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Axel Sola · 95%ELO probability 0.013 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Ismael Bonfim · 59%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1698±190 vs 1607±276; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Axel Sola · 63%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus 160/-200 -> 0.366 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Axel Sola · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Axel Sola · 70%ML probability 0.300 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✓ Axel Sola · 71%Recency-weighted form 0.177 vs 0.427 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✓ Axel Sola · 52%Weighted differential -0.12 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✓ Axel Sola · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✗ Ismael Bonfim · 61%TEST probability 0.608 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis
BASELINE✓ Nurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE probability 0.808 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Nurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✗ Mike Davis · 53%ELO probability 0.475 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Nurullo Aliev · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1839±221 vs 1666±165; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Nurullo Aliev · 65%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -203/175 -> 0.648 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✗ Mike Davis · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines.
ML✓ Nurullo Aliev · 65%ML probability 0.646 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Nurullo Aliev · 64%Recency-weighted form 1.265 vs 0.699 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✗ Mike Davis · 76%Weighted differential -2.35 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✗ Mike Davis · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=386 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✗ Mike Davis · 95%TEST probability 0.050 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.