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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

2026-07-25 · Etihad Arena · Abu Dhabi

MASTER on this card
5–2
71% of scored fights

The Card

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskovmain event
Light Heavyweight · Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan Guskov (TKO, R5)
BASELINE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 82%BASELINE probability 0.816 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 82%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 94%ELO probability 0.942 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 73%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 2069±110 vs 1868±174; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 81%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -555/393 -> 0.807 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 89%Trust-weighted 8.00-1.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines.
ML✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 64%ML probability 0.643 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✗ Bogdan Guskov · 61%Recency-weighted form 0.522 vs 0.828 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 63%Weighted differential +1.07 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 52%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✓ Magomed Ankalaev · 53%TEST probability 0.527 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman
Welterweight · no result recorded
BASELINEIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE probability 0.887 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATAIslam Dulatov · 89%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELOIslam Dulatov · 95%ELO probability 0.992 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOWWellington Turman · 54%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1500±350 vs 1548±143; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKETIslam Dulatov · 87%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -910/623 -> 0.867 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTERIslam Dulatov · 95%Trust-weighted 9.00-0.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier A. Consensus 9/9 engines. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MLIslam Dulatov · 95%ML probability 0.949 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUMIslam Dulatov · 95%Recency-weighted form 0.844 vs 0.000 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLEIslam Dulatov · 95%Weighted differential +11.33 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLEIslam Dulatov · 52%Complete Fighter vs Grappler (n=224 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TESTIslam Dulatov · 95%TEST probability 0.997 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Islam Dulatov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
Flyweight · Ramazan Temirov def. Steve Erceg (KO, R1)
BASELINE✓ Ramazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE probability 0.235 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✓ Ramazan Temirov · 77%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Ramazan Temirov · 90%ELO probability 0.102 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Steve Erceg · 58%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1728±143 vs 1650±264; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Ramazan Temirov · 51%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -108/-113 -> 0.495 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Ramazan Temirov · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Ramazan Temirov · 53%ML probability 0.466 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✗ Steve Erceg · 51%Recency-weighted form 1.058 vs 1.007 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✗ Steve Erceg · 60%Weighted differential +0.82 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✗ Steve Erceg · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✗ Steve Erceg · 69%TEST probability 0.690 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Ramazan Temirov has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
Heavyweight · Rizvan Kuniev def. Tyrell Fortune (TKO, R3)
BASELINE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE probability 0.401 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✗ Tyrell Fortune · 60%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 79%ELO probability 0.785 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Tyrell Fortune · 53%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1467±318 vs 1500±350; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 73%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -333/252 -> 0.730 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✗ Tyrell Fortune · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 74%ML probability 0.742 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✗ Tyrell Fortune · 58%Recency-weighted form 0.869 vs 1.211 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 63%Weighted differential -1.10 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✗ Tyrell Fortune · 51%mirror Complete Fighter (n=0 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✓ Rizvan Kuniev · 50%TEST probability 0.500 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen
Heavyweight · Valter Walker def. Thomas Petersen (SUB, R1)
BASELINE✗ Thomas Petersen · 79%BASELINE probability 0.206 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Valter Walker · 55%BASELINE pick with 2/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Valter Walker · 95%ELO probability 1.000 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Valter Walker · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1706±185 vs 1544±171; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Valter Walker · 61%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -182/145 -> 0.613 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Valter Walker · 92%Trust-weighted 8.25-0.75 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 8/9 engines.
ML✓ Valter Walker · 95%ML probability 0.977 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Valter Walker · 60%Recency-weighted form 1.202 vs 0.795 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✓ Valter Walker · 95%Weighted differential +5.88 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Valter Walker · 51%Complete Fighter vs Striker (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✓ Valter Walker · 95%TEST probability 0.974 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
Welterweight · Sam Patterson def. Santiago Ponzinibbio (TKO, R2)
BASELINE✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 77%BASELINE probability 0.771 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 77%BASELINE pick with 1/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✓ Sam Patterson · 95%ELO probability 0.025 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 57%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1848±95 vs 1793±182; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Sam Patterson · 77%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus 320/-420 -> 0.228 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Sam Patterson · 67%Trust-weighted 3.00-6.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 4/9 engines.
ML✓ Sam Patterson · 59%ML probability 0.410 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Sam Patterson · 70%Recency-weighted form 0.260 vs 0.610 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 57%Weighted differential +0.60 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✓ Sam Patterson · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✗ Santiago Ponzinibbio · 66%TEST probability 0.664 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
Lightweight · Axel Sola def. Ismael Bonfim (SUB, R1)
BASELINE✗ Ismael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE probability 0.738 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
DATA✗ Ismael Bonfim · 74%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ELO✓ Axel Sola · 95%ELO probability 0.013 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✗ Ismael Bonfim · 59%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1698±190 vs 1607±276; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MARKET✓ Axel Sola · 63%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus 160/-200 -> 0.366 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✓ Axel Sola · 78%Trust-weighted 2.00-7.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier B. Consensus 3/9 engines. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ML✓ Axel Sola · 70%ML probability 0.300 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
MOMENTUM✓ Axel Sola · 71%Recency-weighted form 0.177 vs 0.427 incl. layoff penalty. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
ORACLE✓ Axel Sola · 52%Weighted differential -0.12 across striking, grappling, reach and age. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
STYLE✓ Axel Sola · 51%Striker vs Complete Fighter (n=649 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10). CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
TEST✗ Ismael Bonfim · 61%TEST probability 0.608 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats. CAVEAT: Axel Sola has fewer than 3 UFC fights on record — this engine does not adjust for sample size, so treat the confidence as overstated.
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis
Lightweight · Nurullo Aliev def. Mike Davis (UD)
BASELINE✓ Nurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE probability 0.808 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
DATA✓ Nurullo Aliev · 81%BASELINE pick with 0/3 DB contradiction flags (>=2 overrides).
ELO✗ Mike Davis · 53%ELO probability 0.475 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
GLICKO2_SHADOW✓ Nurullo Aliev · 68%SHADOW (not in MASTER): Glicko-2 as-of 1839±221 vs 1666±165; RD widens the estimate where the record is thin.
MARKET✓ Nurullo Aliev · 65%De-vigged BestFightOdds consensus -203/175 -> 0.648 (median of 6-7 books).
MASTER✗ Mike Davis · 56%Trust-weighted 4.00-5.00 of 9.0 (MARKET voting). Tier C. Consensus 5/9 engines.
ML✓ Nurullo Aliev · 65%ML probability 0.646 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
MOMENTUM✓ Nurullo Aliev · 64%Recency-weighted form 1.265 vs 0.699 incl. layoff penalty.
ORACLE✗ Mike Davis · 76%Weighted differential -2.35 across striking, grappling, reach and age.
STYLE✗ Mike Davis · 53%Wrestler vs Complete Fighter (n=386 historical matchups; shrunk toward 0.5 when n<10).
TEST✗ Mike Davis · 95%TEST probability 0.050 from v7.2 formula on as-of 2026-07-25 stats.
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
Bantamweight · Abdul Hussein def. Cody Gibson (SUB, R3)
Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro
Light Heavyweight · Magomed Tuchalov def. Brendson Ribeiro (UD)
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
Light Heavyweight · Muhammad Said def. Dustin Jacoby (TKO, R2)
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Welterweight · Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid Izagakhmaev (UD)
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
Lightweight · Magomed Zaynukov def. Damian Rzepecki (UD)
Analysis and entertainment only. Not betting advice.